World Energy Outlook 2016 sees shift in global energy landscape, but millions still left behind
Implementation of existing policies and the Paris Agreement pledges will result in a substantial shift between fuels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says in its newly released World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2016. While natural gas use is expected to grow by 2040, the share of oil and especially coal will fall back, with growth in coal stopping altogether. In the IEA’s main scenario, nearly 60% of all new power generation capacity to 2040 comes from renewables and, by 2040, the majority of renewables-based generation is competitive without any subsidies.
The geography of global energy consumption continues to shift towards industrialising, urbanising India, Southeast Asia and China, as well as parts of Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, while total energy demand in OECD countries is on a declining path. IEA’s scenarios project that in 2040, universal access is still beyond reach, with several hundred million people still left without basic energy services.
WEO foresees a cumulative USD 44 trillion in investment in global energy supply needed by 2040, with renewable energies accounting for nearly 20%, and an additional USD 23 trillion for improvements in energy efficiency.